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Publications | Michel Strawczynski

Publications

Forthcoming
Strawczynski M. Forthcoming. Cyclicality Of Tax Expenditures: The Case Of Israel . Economic Quarterly. תקציר

Cyclicality of tax expenditures: the case of Israel

 

By Michel Strawczynski

 

ABSTRACT

Tax expenditures have been rarely investigated internationally because of lack of data. This paper analyzes the cyclicality of tax expenditures in Israel, a country that has gradually intensified the use of this tool, becoming quantitatively important in terms of GDP when compared to other OECD countries. Using quarterly data for the period 1986 to 2016, I find that the pattern of cyclicality of government decisions on tax expenditures changed after 1997, following a notorious reduction of government's deficit and debt: tax expenditures became pro-cyclical in expansions and counter-cyclical in recessions. The latter finding resembles the pattern documented in the literature for government spending in selected developing economies, who achieved in recent years counter-cyclical implementation of spending.

 

Key Words – Tax Expenditures, Cyclical Policy.

JEL Numbers– H24, H25 and H62.

2022
Michel Strawczynski and Tirosh, Oren . 2022. Government Welfare Policy Under A Skilled-Biased Technological Change. Public Finance Review, 50, 5, Pp. 515–557. Abstract

In a world where machines replace unskilled work, an active labor market policy - represented by the combination of an optimal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and income maintenance for the unemployed - provides incentives to increase participation in the labor market and depresses wages for unskilled employees. In this paper, this policy is tested against the alternative of allowing unskilled workers to receive a means-tested basic income (MTBI), as recently adopted by Spain. For a liberal social planner (i.e., includes consumption and leisure in individual utility), the MTBI dominates the active labor market policy. For a conservative social planner (i.e., evaluates social welfare based on individual utility from consumption), the active labor market policy dominates the MTBI. The potential dynamic effects of active labor policy on labor supply were considered in a simulation by using updated empirical estimates; it shows that this policy becomes preferable for both types of social planner.

2021
Eitan Regev and Strawczynski, Michel . 2021. The Optimal Long-Run Earned Income Tax Credit. International Journal Of Economic Theory, 17, 3, Pp. 284–308. Abstract
Governments implementing an Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) aim at increasing Working Poor’s propensity to work, in order to alleviate poverty. If this goal is attained in the long-run: shall the optimal EITC increase or decrease? We deal with this question using simulations with endogenous participation and intensive margin elasticities. When the participation elasticity is endogenous, the optimal long-run EITC decreases. However, if we add endogenous intensive margin elasticity, the optimal EITC increases because the Working Poor works harder, making the EITC cheaper at the margin. The optimal increasing long-run EITC pattern holds also with a constant elasticity of labor.
Strawczynski M. 2021. Taxation Policy In Israel, Falk Book On The Israeli Economy, 1995-2017: Light And Shadow In A Market Economy. Cambridge University Press, Edited By Avraham Ben-Bassat, Reuven Grounau And Assaf Zusman. Abstract
After a long period of stability in tax rates, in 2004 a process of marked reductions in corporate and individual income tax rates began, leading to competitive levels in the global arena, thus attracting companies to Israel while making the departure of individuals and companies abroad less attractive. I start by presenting a review which shows that changes introduced in Israel’s tax rates were consistent with government’s multi-period budget constraint, except for few periods. Between 1960-2002 tax rates changed in response to changes in government spending; whereas in the sub-period 2003 – 2015 the government deviated from this pattern: taxes dictated government spending rather than the reverse. The second part of the article examines whether there is a connection between politics and decisions regarding changes in the statutory tax rates. I found that a government led by a member of a centrist party lowered both income and corporate tax rates, and that in a coalition controlled by a right-wing party prime minister, there was a tendency to reduce the corporate tax rate. I also found that consistently with evidence from other countries, governments controlled by a left-wing prime minister increased the ratio of progressive to regressive taxes.
2020
Momi Dahan and Strawczynski, Michel . 2020. Budget Institutions And Government Effectiveness. Journal Of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 32, 2, Pp. 217–246. Abstract
Do budget institutions play a role in explaining why government effectiveness is higher in some advanced countries than in others? Employing an original panel dataset that covers four different years (1991, 2003, 2007 and 2012), we find that budget centralization has a negative and significant effect on government effectiveness in OECD countries after accounting for a list of control variables, such as GDP per capita, government expenditure and country- and year-fixed effects. We show that less centralized countries display significantly better performance in health and infrastructure and a similar effectiveness in tax collections. The negative impact of budget centralization seems to manifest especially at the execution stage of the budgeting process, while it is not significant at the formulation and legislation stages. These results survive a list of sensitivity tests.
Tomer Blumkin, Margalioth, Yoram , and Strawczynski, Michel . 2020. The Effects Of Permanent Income Tax Cuts On Emigration From Israel. Cesifo Economic Studies, 66, 1, Pp. 1–32. Abstract
In this paper we estimate the effect on emigration of the permanent income tax reductions implemented in Israel during the period 2004-2010. We find that emigration flows from Israel declined, especially for brackets that benefited from a larger tax reduction. We also find that the effect is stronger for younger workers than for older ones, a result consistent with the former group deriving expected tax benefits over a longer duration of time
Ofir Y Pinto, Strawczynski, Michel , and Rimmerman, Arie . 2020. Exploring The Right To Work Among Persons With Disabilities: The Role Of Labor-Oriented Values. Work, 67, 1, Pp. 193–202. Abstract

BACKGROUND: The UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (CRPD) assumes that persons with disabilities have similar rights, motivations to work and personal values as those without a disability.

OBJECTIVE: The article examines the corroboration between this assumption and real-life facts to better understand the importance of labor-oriented values in people with disabilities

METHODS: We tested the relationship between human values, employment and wages among Israelis with disabilities who cope with prejudice, negative attitudes and a lack of accessible workplaces in comparison to Israelis without a disability.

RESULTS: We found that the effect of labor-oriented values on employment status is 70% higher among people with disabilities than among those without a disability. Furthermore, persons with disabilities ranked power and achievement as important values related to employment, but these values were not included in the considerations of persons without a disability.

CONCLUSIONS: These results highlight the importance of labor-oriented values for people with disabilities to overcome challenges in the labor market. Our findings suggest that rehabilitation policies would benefit from identifying the human value of people with disabilities at an early stage of their career.

Eitan Regev and Strawczynski, Michel . 2020. The Optimal Earned Income Tax Credit (Eitc) Schedule: A Trapezoid Or A Triangle?. The Be Journal Of Economic Analysis & Policy, 20, 3. Abstract
In this paper we ask the following question: Is the optimal Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) schedule a trapezoid, as widely used by policy-makers, or is it a triangle? We show that a trapezoid is optimal only when the wage distribution among the working poor is even with a discrete jump for higher wage groups. Since this pattern is not in line with the observed wage distributions of countries, we conclude that the optimal schedule is a triangle. Our simulations show that the use of a trapezoid implies a substantial loss in terms of Social Welfare.
Michel Strawczynski. 2020. Optimal Eitc In The Presence Of Cultural Barriers For Labor Market Participation. Journal Of Labor Research, 41, 3, Pp. 233–259. Abstract
In this paper I simulate the entrance to the labor market in the presence of cultural barriers that constraint labor market participation of low-income workers. In this case, an optimal EITC depends on social planner’s relative preferences for persistently unemployed and working poor. I check EITC optimality in the short run under different types of social planners - from mild inequality averse to Rawlsian; and different kinds of policy makers – conservative, who favors the Working Poor, and liberal, who tolerates cultural barriers and favors the unemployed. Using simulations, I find that the imposition of an EITC is optimal in all cases, except for a Rawlsian and liberal policy-maker under the unusual case of full compliance to minimum wage. By calibrating the model for Israel, a country with well-documented cultural barriers for labor market participation, I find that the proposed framework will remain relevant in the foreseeable future. In light of these results and of EITC documented advantages, its scare use in developed economies remains an open question that merits further research.
Carmel Gomeh and Strawczynski, Michel . 2020. Simulating Corporate Tax Rate At Laffer Curve'S Peak Using Microdata. Journal Of Economics And Business, 112, Pp. 105930. Abstract
This paper uses administrative panel micro-data of Israeli firms between 2006 and 2015 to simulate corporate tax rates at Laffer Curve's peak. We first propose a theoretical model where three effects interact: a mechanical effect, a dynamic effect - related to opening and closing firms - and an efficiency effect related to profits. We run regressions for opening and closing firms, and for profits, as a function of the effective corporate tax rate, together with a bunch of additional explanatory variables. Using the coefficients obtained from these regressions we estimate the tax rate at the Laffer Curve's peak between 26 and 38 percent – which is within the range shown in the literature based on macro data. Concerning branches, we found that food services is characterized by a low tax rate at the peak of the Laffer Curve (14 percent) while manufacturing is characterized by a high one (39 percent).
2018
Michel Strawczynski. 2018. Book Review: The Israeli Economy By Joseph Zeira. Israel Economic Review, 16, 1, Pp. 105-112. Abstract
As a mature fruit deriving from a lifelong distinguished scholarly career, Joseph Zeira has written a highly valuable contribution about Israel's economy. His book is original and multidimensional, and is characterized by an intellectually remarkable effort to explain all crucial aspects of Israel's macroeconomy. In the introduction he states: "My involvement attests to my social and political preferences, but I believe that it does not influence my scientific analysis of the Israeli economy, because I am deeply concerned about the need to separate science from personal views." I am writing this review in the hope that I will be able to hold myself apart from my admiration of my excellent and didactic Macroeconomics teacher during my MA studies and from my fruitful collaboration with Joseph in writing empirical papers about Israel's economy. I aim at overcoming this challenge.  
2017
In 2009 Laron amendment was implemented. Its purpose was to change disabled workers incentives by reforming the formula related to work allowances. We checked the impact of this amendment by analyzing workers behavior after five years of implementation. By comparing disabled workers to workers of similar background that did not receive the allowance we answer to the following questions: what was the impact of Laron ammendment on their work supply? what are the characteristics of workers that substantially reacted to Laron ammendment? 
Avia Spivak Michel Strawczynski and Yair Kochav. 2017. It Is Human Capital Again: The Centrality Of Higher Education In Explaining Gdp Per Employee. The Open Journal Of Economics And Finance, 1, 1, Pp. 86-105. Abstract

In this paper we check the main traditional suspects for explaining growth of GDP per-employee using a panel analysis of forty-one developed and developing countries in the period 1970-2010. While well-known explanations like cultural, geographical, institutional and government policy were found significant, we show that higher education is the single crucial factor for explaining long-term GDP per-employee. According to our analysis the reform implemented by Asian Tigers, which implied a transition from primary and secondary education to an increased share of tertiary education among the working population, allowed these countries to reach the level that prevails in developed economies. In contrast, Latin American countries that did not pursue higher education reform, did not achieve sizable growth. Our specification shows that increasing the share of higher education in the working population results in marginal decreasing returns though positive.

2016
Noa Srebrnick Michel and Strawczynski. 2016. Cyclicality Of Taxes And External Debt. Applied Economics, 48, Pp. 4622-4634. Abstract
Vegh and Vuletin (2015) have shown that statutory tax rates are acyclical in developed economies and procyclical in developing ones. This paper extends their analysis by checking the interaction of statutory tax rates with countries' external public debt. In general we found that the V.A.T rates are changed procyclically in both developed and developing countries (i.e., taxes are raised in bad times and reduced in good times). However, when the external debt is high, in the developing countries the procyclicality increases, while the opposite result holds for developed economies. This pattern occurs mainly in times of recession, when the need for loans is the highest. Although we found that there was a reduction in procyclicality after the 2000s, these findings pose a challenge to policy-makers, who should think of ways of dealing with lack of foreign funds in difficult times.
2015

While business cycles are crucial for determining the dynamics of government budget deficits, it is rare to find an analysis of optimal fiscal rules that are designed to cope with the asymmetric behavior of fiscal variables during the cycle. In this paper I characterize the dynamics of budget deficits along the cycle: i) in recessions marginal propensity to spend is higher than the coefficient of marginal tax revenues, causing an increase of the deficit over GDP; ii) in expansions tax revenues soar allowing for a deficit reduction; however, marginal spending is still high and consequently a full cycle implies an increase in the deficit. Then, I present a model in which fiscal rules are designed to cope with a political bias that is based on two components: the cyclical bias and discretionary tax reductions. According to my analysis, the new generation fiscal rules should be based on a combination of expenditure and revenue rules, which are newer than budget deficit rules and are becoming widespread. According to my empirically calibrated simulation, this combination of rules succeeds on avoiding the political bias and is more cycle-friendly than a budget deficit rule.

Michel Strawczynski Natalia and Myronichev. 2015. The Persuasive Role Of Information: The Case Of Eitc Reminders By Mail. Public Policy And Administration, 30, 2, Pp. 115-144. Abstract

While the cost estimates of reminders by mail are readily available for policy-makers, the estimation of their benefit requires thoughtful analysis. For this purpose, we used data about Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) reminders by mail which the Israel Tax Authority sent to eligible applicants during the period of 2008-2011. Using a framework of repeated letters, we were able to identify those who applied for the EITC in response to such a reminder. In the framework of dynamic analysis of learning, we estimated the persuasive role of receiving reminders – which prompts an increased uptake – at 1.5 percent. Using independently -performed questionnaires, we characterised the ‘letter–dependent’ population, defined as those who depended on receiving reminders for requesting the EITC transfer. We found that these applicants were older; they received a lower transfer, they had a fair level of knowledge of the programme and they did not actively seek out information about the amount of the expected transfer.

Adi Brender Michel and Strawczynski. 2015. Government Support For Young Families In Israel. Israel Economic Review, 12, 2, Pp. 1-49. Abstract

This paper examines the policy option of providing government assistance to families with young children and financing it by increasing income taxes when the children leave home and the parents' wages rise due to their tenure in the labor market. We examine the expenditure composition and the characteristics of labor market participation of parents of young children in Israel, and find that these families have higher expenditures than other families, and that their income in the years in which children are present in the household is lower than in the following years. We do not find evidence that the relative position of young families deteriorated during the last decade, except for the housing market where we identify a consistently rising share of these families residing in rented rather than self-owned dwellings; such a trend did not develop among other family types. We also show that parents of young children are characterized by high employment rates and persistent employment. A comparison of government support for young families in other OECD countries with those in Israel for 14 representative family types—characterized by their structure and income composition—shows that it is higher in these countries for all of these family types. A simulation of raising the average benefits for young families in Israel to the level common in other OECD countries, while raising income tax rates at older ages in a way that keeps the policy fiscally balanced – and the individuals' lifetime income level unchanged – indicates that welfare can be increased substantially via consumption smoothing over the families' life cycle.

Michel Strawczynski. 2015. When Do Governments Raise Taxes? (In Hebrew). In Essays In Tax Law In Honor To Arie Lapidot Edited By D. Gliksberg. Jerusalem: Law Faculty at Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Abstract
In this chapter I analyze the development of statutory taxes in Israel, and I answer to the following question: when do Israeli governments rise statutory taxes? The main events that govern statutory tax hikes are temporary recessions and situations of a structural government deficit. The paper shows that the well-known tax reduction in the period 2004-2010 created such a situation, which forced abolishing parliament approved tax reductions until 2016 and substantially increasing statutory taxes between 2012 and 2014.
2014
Michel Strawczynski. 2014. The Optimal Inheritance Tax In The Presence Of Investment In Education. International Tax And Public Finance, 21, Pp. 768-795. Abstract

This paper provides an example aimed at calculating the optimal inheritance tax in a model in which inheritances are used to finance investment in education. Two results are obtained: 1) The optimal inheritance tax schedule includes a threshold, estimated  between 2.5 and 5.5 times per-capita GDP. This result holds for a Rawlsian social planner that maximizes the welfare of the poorest individual, who does not leave bequests. 2) Contrary to the  result of a 100 percent tax on pure accidental bequests, the optimal simulated tax rates are  between 28 percent, for the case of educational bequests, and 57 percent, for the case where educational and accidental bequests interact.  This range is in line with existing schedules in developed economies.

Michel Strawczynski. 2014. Cyclicality Of Statutory Tax Rates. Israel Economic Review, 11, 1, Pp. 67-96. Abstract
Most studies on cyclical fiscal policy ignore statutory taxes due to a lack of data. In this paper I build on singular data on statutory tax rates in Israel, in order to study how they are changed by the government in expansions and recessions. After differentiating between ideological (exogenous) tax changes, and those that react to the cycle (endogenous) using the Romer and Romer (2010) technique, I check whether endogenous statutory tax rates are acyclical or countercyclical, as recommended by theoretical models. I find that while direct taxes are a-cyclical, indirect taxes (and in particular VAT) are changed procyclically. A pseudo-panel analysis based on the different types of taxation and a panel analysis based on indirect taxation show that the main reason for statutory tax changes is the existence of economic crises. This explanation is stronger than economic considerations like population or expenditure growth, legal considerations like the rigidity for changing statutory taxes, and income distribution considerations like the incidence on the bottom income decile.